As I’m sure most reading this article can sympathize with, as I sat in the drive-thru line at the local Chick-fil-a this week to pick up dinner for my family of four, upon ordering for the peckish lot, who really don’t eat much at all, I was astounded by the nearly fifty dollar total.  I mean, this is fast food after all!  As I dug in a bit on this subject, fast food menu prices have on the average raised by sixty percent, nearly double the rate of inflation over the past decade according to data analyzed by FinanceBuzz.  That meal out was nearly the same as buying my favorite go-to Woodford Double Oaked bottle!  

Inflation is everywhere on the news these days, if you haven’t heard it talked about or realized the stark reality of its impact on everyday life, you are a unique sliver of the American populous, be that a “one percenter” living a life of luxury unimpacted largely by the to’s and fro’s of economics or Amish, living a life with no tv or electricity…and no bourbon…yipes!  As consumers face ever increasing headwinds with rising inflation, no sector of the economy seems to be unaffected.  At the same time however, year over year household buying power has risen – not by much, but the average workers “real” take home earnings went up nearly a whole percentage point meaning their dollar technically can stretch a bit further.

Last year Consumer Edge, a company that tracks debit and credit card spending, found that luxury spending was down 7% in 2023.  That’s perhaps not surprisingly the same drop in valuations across the Bourbon Secondary Market according to data tracked through our proprietary Bourbon Blue Book™ platform, synthesized in our weekly Bourbon Secondary Market Index that goes out to our members.  No matter how you look at it, the average person is feeling the squeeze on their wallets.

To test how this trend translates to the bourbon world, we conducted a poll of our Bourboneur audience on Facebook where we found that approximately sixty percent of respondents when reflecting on their bourbon spending habits over the course of this year so far said they were spending less.  Approximately fifteen percent said they were spending less on allocated bourbons, highlighting the pull back that we referenced earlier on the secondary market pricing overall.

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Is the Bourbon Bubble About to Pop?

Bourbon prices have certainly gone up over the past number of years, carried by a swoon of demand by the ever-increasing number of consumers buying up product.  That’s not the entire story however, as you can equally blame the fact that supply of aged whiskey hasn’t been able to keep up with demand, further driving prices, retailers attaching insane pricing to bottles to match what the market is commanding – plus some and plus some more for good measure, or distillers charging three figures for bottles that aren’t all that special and throwing some fancy packaging and a “limited” label on it recognizing someone is going to feel like their missing out and going to pay the price, foolishly.  This premium pricing crazy train isn’t of course happening on mainstay brands that you find all day long at every liquor store across the country – they’ve experience modest increases but are the bread and butter of profits and price stability is king for distilleries long term business plans.

What’s interesting for the years ahead will be how the investments of the past number of years in increased capacity across the bourbon industry impact the overall market, paired with all the investment type barrels from organizations like CaskX.  We know that there are approximately 12.6 million barrels of bourbon aging in Kentucky at the moment, but nobody knows how many barrels of Kentucky bourbon are owned by investors versus distillers or brands – maybe forty percent I’ve heard some guess..more?   With an overhang of a lot of bourbon coming online in various ways, shapes and forms, the future will have some interesting nuance.  What still holds true today and for the foreseeable future is that aged whiskey is still in demand and rare or limited offerings are rarer and more limited than ever before given demand outstripping supply.  Although pricing will continue to soften given economic conditions, a pour of something special is still seen as just that and will still continue to be prized by bourbon lovers and afficionados.

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Don’t Buy for Hype | Buy for the RIGHT Reasons

The market is going to drive pricing and general consumers, despite however much we may begroan the cost of allocated or rare bottles, are going to continue to be price takers and not price makers.  I’ve accepted that reality, and that’s why the Bourbon Blue Book™ came into existence, to at least serve as a regularly updated resource to help navigate pricing.  It’s saved – or made, depending how you look at it – Bourboneur’s a ton of money.  Data is valuable and making informed purchases is likely why over 40,000 Bourboneur’s use the Bourbon Blue Book™ every single week.  But beyond making informed purchasing decisions, it can be awfully difficult to know whether dropping $500 on Weller Single Barrel is worth it based on types of bottles YOU like.  If you ever read one of the online talking whiskey heads tasting notes hinting at subtle nougat undertones with fleeting sprinkles of cardamom dancing on their taste buds its readily apparent that that review will mean a hill of beans to you…especially when you buy it and taste none of those things.  That’s where our proprietary flavor intensity data can help you find a pour you’ll love, with over 500 bourbons mapped to-date in our Members Only section, where you can sign up and then pin/add our site to your home screen where it will function much like an app, often referred to as a “web app.”  Some other great reasons for buying bourbon that aren’t hype are if you’re buying bourbon you know you like, or from a distiller whose products you greatly enjoy or if the bourbon has a dump date corresponding to a significant life event.

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Join Over 10,000 Bourboneur’s

Join our community of thousands by scrolling down and subscribing to our weekly email list – you can also find us on Instagram, Facebook, and yes, even TikTok.  Show us some love and give us a like on your favorite platform, or all of them and keep up with all the Bourboneur happenings!

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